How do you handle strategic ambiguity?
A guide for senior level data scientists and AI product managers
Hi there, it’s Matt! This is part of a larger series covering AI strategy and thought. Also check out our series on AI product.
Ambiguity. Whether you’re a lead data scientist leading a team, strategist, or a AI product manager, it never goes away.
If you're like me, dealing with ambiguity is a daily part of your work routine. It can ambush you out of nowhere, and trying to put a system to handle it can most of your work.
I find frustration mounts even more when these all happen at once. Especially when the best laid roadmaps and technical plans you make are thrown against reality. Events, tasks, and situations can easily go beyond your comfort zone.
Instead of avoiding all ambiguity, wouldn’t be interesting to have a framework to work with? In this article, I will use a discuss 5 things I assess to navigate through these situations.
1. Define the Vision, Overcommunicate
Vision is the foundation. It provides the framework - how, what, and why. Without it, it’s difficult for you to make progress in an ambiguous situation.
Vision provides the framework for why we do, what we need to focus on, and how we implement.
Vision helps set frameworks and guardrails. It provides a larger reason, motiving teams the flow of tasks and projects. They make it clear how we move forward - or if we need realign.
But is there a framework? I’ve found several ways that are helpful:
Define Intent. We need to know a defined outcome. It does not need to be perfect or specific. But it does need to represent long-term vision and direction. Defining this is critical for navigating ambiguity, setting the tone for teams and individuals. It’s easier to build, prioritize, and make tradeoffs if you know why you’re doing it.
Talk about Concept of Execution. Defining an end isn’t enough. Explain how you want it to be done. Create process frameworks for your teams and direct reports. Align it with vision and its intent. Allow them to determine the best path - give them a shape of how it’s done. It gives them flexibility.
Break it down. Vision at a strategic level is different from a team level. Tasks are similar. At each level, the vision and its tasks grow narrower. Good vision refines itself as goes from the big picture to execution. Each step is accomplishing a feature of the larger vision. Teams don’t feel so overwhelmed and can build with confidence.
Overcommunicate. Saying you have a vision isn’t enough. Alignment means overcommunication. Repeat the vision and mission so teams learn the larger picture. Create feedback loops to clarify it. Overtime teams and individuals start to understand.
Ambiguity is hard when there is no direction. Vision defines what part of that ambiguous space we operate in. Breaking it down helps teams focus on what is important, and what is needed.
A well-defined vision takes away much of the frustration of ambiguity. It boosts confidence and focus.
People keep asking me why I keep communicating the vision. Tying work to the vision keeps teams focused and encourages incremental alignment. Teams and individual contributors self-correct, reducing (yet another) alignment meeting. Independent work and initiative are possible.
A well-defined vision reduces the frustration of ambiguity. It also helps you save valuable time and resources, and concentrate them effectively.
Focus on the vision and the problem space that exists in them. It allows your team to incrementally correct and align - increasing operational velocity and tempo.
2. Know what is within your control.
AI strategists, lead data scientists, and AI product managers have a constant opponent: entropy.
It’s the measure of chaos in a system, which take away resources and time. The pain from ambiguity largely comes from it. The worst part is often we try to control it - it results in lots of scope drift, failed projects, and misalignment.
The solution? Focus on the factors that are under your control that reduce the effect of loss of time, resources, and energy. This means three things: resources, talent, and your attributes.
Entropy is a measure of the disorder or randomness in a system, that may result in the loss of energy or resources available for work.
Resources are resources directly used in achieving objectives and tasks. These are tech, budgets, reputation, political capital, and other limited things that are key to achieving goals. Assessing these is the first start to gaining confidence and taming ambiguity.
Knowing your current resources allows you to prioritize in an ambiguous situation. It enables calculation of the most efficient action. You know how much you have - and how long it takes to acquire more resources.
When you think you know the resources you have? Assess them some more. Don’t assume. I’ve dealt with situations with clients where we thought we knew resources. Then a market or scope change happened - and we realized we didn’t.
Chaos is easier to respond to when you know what you have on your disposal.
Next, talent. Talent is the people who support you. It is teams, sponsors, and mentors. Everyone has specialized unique skills. Overcoming the chaos of ambiguity is leveraging these. Succeeding in the chaos of ambiguity is synchronizing these talents.
For teams, focus on combined talent. Each team member brings unique capabilities and insights. Different experts support each other to cover gaps in skills or knowledge. Integrating various specializations, teams become more adaptable to ambiguity and chaos. They build confidence and morale. This is divisive.
Diverse expertise equips the team to better handle unforeseen challenges and changes, which are natural sources of ambiguity and chaos in projects.
Finally, you need to think about yourself. This is the most important part; I feel that gets missed when talking about ambiguity. Assess your emotions and abilities.
Emotions, like your thoughts and fears, play a big role in decisions, especially in unclear situations. Acknowledge them but keep them separate from the hard facts to make better choices.
Your abilities are your strengths, weaknesses, and past experiences. They shape how you handle these situations. Use them wisely to navigate through uncertainty with confidence. Recognize where you excel and where you may need support, leveraging your past experiences to inform your approach.
When you actively examine your arsenal of strengths, skills, and resources, you soften the chaos of ambiguity. It creates a foundation for the framework that helps you tackle factors beyond your control.
3. Know what is out of your control.
Most of the chaos of ambiguity comes from outside factors. I find this is the hardest for AI product managers, lead data scientists, and AI strategists to face. It can be like staring down barrel of a lit cannon. Much of it is outside of your control, and dictates your planning, execution, and strategies.
Grasping the edges of what's beyond your control is tough. It's like trying to map the fog—it just adds layers to the uncertainty. There's a real danger in puffing up your capabilities or brushing off those factors as if they don't matter.
There are 6 outside factors that increase ambiguity:
Data. AI heavily relies on data, which can often be incomplete, noisy, or open to multiple interpretations, leading to challenges in model development and decision-making.
Technology Changes. The rapid evolution of AI technologies creates uncertainty around the best tools or methods to use, risking the adoption of solutions that may quickly become outdated. Integration isn’t easy and hard to scope.
Market Dynamics: Fast-changing market demands and trends introduce uncertainty in strategic planning, making it hard to predict future needs or market responses.
Competitive Landscape: Limited or unclear information about competitors' actions or strategies can make it challenging to effectively position AI products or anticipate market shifts.
Regulatory Ambiguity: The evolving ethical and regulatory landscape for AI adds complexity to strategic decisions, particularly around data privacy, algorithmic fairness, and compliance.
Time. This is how much time you have to reach the end state. This usually dictated by the goals you set and/or the circumstance. It limits how quickly you can respond.
I see this as risk management game, but with a twist. So much of the battle is acknowledging these as factors. It's about keeping your eyes wide open to the whole picture, not just the bits you can change or influence.
To know what is out of your control takes courage: you must face the unpleasant factors to be able to account, plan, and respond to them.
And that’s okay. Knowing and accepting them as facts is the most important part. You must see these factors as a daily part of working in ambiguity and managing entropy.
4. Define Spaces and Position by Operational Thinking
Getting a grip on what's in your hands and what's not is the first step. From there, it's all about positioning—where you channel your resources, time, and effort into a spot that's tactically or strategically sound.
Use to operational thinking to navigate a storm of ambiguity. It ties large picture data science and AI vision and execution together. It gives a voice to strategy by defining the problem, data, and strategy space. Effective positioning in ambiguity needs these.
Operational thinking cuts through ambiguity by defining the problem, data, and strategy space.
So how does these spaces clear up ambiguity? They define the ground on we do battle with ambiguity.
Problem space defines what we need to solve. Knowing the problem is hard. Defining it within a business model or product need? Harder. You need to know what you up against to define the data you need.
A data space defines potential. AI products and strategy run off data. A minimum level of a data must be available to solve a problem. A minimum viable data needs to be curated to actually solve the problem. Success in the data space defines the potential of our work.
Both define the strategy space. Defined data spaces open up strategies, while less defined ones limit them. Giving a bigger range of options helps reduce the friction between ambiguity beyond your control and your plans.
Defining these spaces then the process and ops space you’ll work in.
Concentrating Resources is easier. Taking it allows you to take an action quickly when an opportunity presents itself. You can capitalize on a strategic opportunity, and expand your market share, footprint, etc. Good concentration allows better tradeoffs.
Allows efficient conservation and concentration. Reduces resources (time, energy, money, etc.) needed to take an action. It also decreases the amount of resources to maximize a competitive position.
Enhances Maneuverability. A good position opens up multiple courses of action — which enable unique uncontested opportunities. Multiple lines of approach create options. Together, they give a competitive edge.
In ambiguous situations, maintaining a good position is crucial as it enables you to proactively address multiple scenarios without being forced to react.
Strategic positioning allows you to allocate the maximum resources to unforeseen challenges. Positioning helps you maintain the initiative.
Know and define the ground. Position on it. Tie the larger problem, data, and strategic spaces to the vision. Ambiguity won’t go away, but you’ll navigate it far easier.
5. Mental Mindset.
Ambiguous situations do not consistently present favorable choices. Or even a choice between a bad or good one. More often than not? The choice is between a bad choice and worse one. A right mindset teaches you to accept all these outcomes.
Mental mindset means that you are in a state of mental readiness-even if you are unsure about what to do next. You must be able to be in the moment- observing the situation without anticipating. If an opportunity presents itself, you are able to respond and position without hesitation.
Most important to this mindset? A willingness to accept the consequences of actions in an ambiguous situation. You must go into the situation with strong determination — acceptance of both failure and success.
In the military and consulting I’ve learned being able to fully accept consequences matter. We want it to go our way. But being mentally ready to capitalize on gains and to mitigate a less ideal outcomes? That’s a major skill that will set you apart.
You’re able to have confidence in ambiguity. You’re able to swim through it like a fish in water. No matter what industry you are in, this an effective and rare mindset.
Mental mindset is essential to managing ambiguous situations. Acceptance and determination in the face it makes you confident and decisive.
Mental mindset is like a quarterback facing a blitz, where acceptance and determination turn chaos into a touchdown.
It teaches you to win well and to lose well in these situations.
Final Thoughts
Navigating ambiguity is no simple task for anyone - it's a skill crafted over time.
With dedication, practice, experience, and thoughtful reflection, anyone can learn to steer through uncertainty with confidence.
To summarize:
Define the Vision, Overcommunicate
Know what is within and outside of your control.
Define Spaces and Position by Operational Thinking
Correct mental mindset and spirit — acceptance and commitment to the decisions you make.
Ambiguity doesn’t go away - it evolves rather than vanishing through your career. But embracing and adapting to it is within reach. Over time, its once muddled patterns start to reveal a clearer path.